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WTO forecasts sharp slowdown in global trade growth in 2023

The World Trade Organization recently issued a forecast saying that the world economy has been hit by multiple shocks, and global trade is expected to lose its growth momentum in the second half of 2022, and the growth rate will drop sharply in 2023.

WTO economists lowered their forecast for the growth rate of global trade in goods in 2023 to 1%, much lower than their April forecast of 3.4%; the new forecast believes that the global economy will grow by 2.3% in 2023, about 1% lower than the previous forecast. percentage point.

     WTO economists predict that the volume of global trade in goods will grow by 3.5% in 2022, and the global economy will grow by 2.8% in 2022.
The WTO said previous forecasts for 2023 appeared "too optimistic" given soaring energy prices, more widespread inflation and no sign of an end to the military conflict.
The WTO believes that as growth in the world's major economies slows, import demand will decrease. High energy prices due to the Ukraine crisis will squeeze European
 household spending and push up business production costs; tightening monetary policy in the United States will hit interest-rate-sensitive spending areas such as housing, 
cars and fixed investment. At the same time, rising fuel, food and fertilizer import prices could pose food security risks and debt problems for developing countries.
WTO Director-General Ivira said policymakers faced difficult choices and needed to find the best balance between policy goals such as tackling inflation, maintaining full
 employment and achieving a clean energy transition.
She stressed that trade is an important tool to enhance the global supply of goods and services and reduce the cost of achieving net zero emissions. The 12th WTO Ministerial
 Conference in June this year proved that with sufficient political will, WTO members can cooperate and move forward together.

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